"The Groyper Squeeze"

This is it! Today, voters head to the polls from New York to California in off-year elections that will no doubt unleash a flood of hot takes by tomorrow morning. While Democrats are generally expected to sweep everywhere (with maybe a squeaker in New Jersey), I’ll refrain from sharing any detailed pre-election predictions. Instead, here’s a comprehensive election night preview from Decision Desk, and I promise to share a roundup of post-election data and analysis later this week. Stay hydrated, and stay tuned…

As Republicans attempt to battle Democrats in a messaging war over a government shutdown and in today’s elections, the biggest voices on the Right are brawling over anti-semitism in their ranks.

In case you weren't aware, a full-blown civil war is tearing through MAGA media, pitting some of its most powerful figures against each other in a bitter feud over Israel, antisemitism, and the future of the conservative movement. The flashpoint came last week when Tucker Carlson hosted white supremacist Nick Fuentes on his podcast, in which Fuentes criticized Daily Wire founder Ben Shapiro and made inflammatory, anti-semitic remarks about “organized jewry.” Fuentes also mentioned how he was first radicalized by listening to conservative radio host Mark Levin when he was growing up. Carlson’s controversial decision to platform Fuentes and his continued criticism of U.S. support for Israel (calling fellow conservatives “Christian Zionists” with a “brain virus”) drew condemnation from prominent GOP figures and Israel hawks like Senators Ted Cruz and Mitch McConnell, as well as from Levin and Shapiro.

Mark Levin, in a fiery speech at the Republican Jewish Coalition this weekend, denounced both Carlson and Fuentes, warning that antisemitism is poisoning the GOP. He accused Carlson of platforming extremists and undermining the party’s values, and his speech is a good encapsulation of the fierce emotions at play: 

…and yesterday, Ben Shapiro titled the latest episode of his show “Tucker Carlson Sabotages America,” in which he too launches into a tirade against Carlson and Fuentes. 

The rift is sucking in major conservative organizations, too, with some putting out statements asserting their support for Israel or condemning anti-semitism within their ranks. However, Kevin Roberts, the leader of the Heritage Foundation, defended Tucker Carlson, which in turn sparked another round of feuds in the press and on X. 

The conservative fight over supporting Israel has been simmering all year, with top influencers like Carlson, Candace Owens, and Steve Bannon bucking Republican orthodoxy on the issue. The shift reflects both declining support for Israel among younger MAGA supporters and a shift in audience demand in online MAGA media. The data shows that Carlson and Owens, in particular, are winning - having grown their following and clout significantly this year, while pro-Israel voices like Shapiro have seen their audience growth stall in 2025. 

Entering a crucial off-year Election Day and a national messaging war over the government shutdown, the MAGA media’s feud over antisemitism and Israel couldn’t come at a worse time. Just like the Epstein Files issue did this summer, the split is exposing deeper fractures within Trump’s political coalition as it attempts to balance populist nationalism with traditional Republican support for Israel. 

Depending on how this shakes out, it could have larger implications for the future of the Republican Party. For example, as Punchbowl’s Andrew Desidero points out, Vice President JD Vance is personally close with Tucker Carlson, but will likely need the support of the pro-Israel crowd when he runs for president two years from now. Fuentes, for this part, is gleefully acknowledging this tough position for Vance, referring to it as “the Groyper Squeeze.” (Fuentes’ fanboys call themselves Groypers).

"He's getting squeezed," Fuentes said on his show last week. "Because the groypers are on the one hand saying, 'Hey, listen, fat boy, we want America First. You want to run for president? We want to hear you say America First.' And on the other side, he's got his donors and they're saying, 'They're horrible anti-Semites. You have to disavow them. You have to forcefully condemn them. Condemn Tucker, condemn the groypers."

Here’s more reading on the MAGA media civil war:

In less than a year, Zohran Mamdani has built an online following and level of engagement that rivals some of the largest, most established names in politics. He began 2025 with a modest owned audience of fewer than 60,000 across Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, and TikTok. Now, as New Yorkers head to the polls on Election Day, he commands a following of nearly 7 million across those platforms. Here’s a chart showing his shocking follower growth in 2025: