Progressive fears about TikTok takeover fail to materialize

Last year, when it became clear that Trump-allied billionaire Larry Ellison was part of a group of investors vying for an ownership stake in TikTok through his software giant Oracle, progressives sounded the alarm.

The deal marked "yet another big step in the consolidation of major media sources under right-wing control," warned a piece in the leftist magazine Jacobin. It "would turn Trump allies' dreams of control into reality," argued a column published by MS NOW. "Thanks to Trump, right-wing multibillionaire Larry Ellison will now control the TikTok algorithm," Sen. Bernie Sanders posted on X.

Many liberals predicted that the platform's new owners would cozy up to Trump's team, install pro-MAGA leadership, and turn up the algorithmic dial on right-wing content while suppressing progressive points of view. And they were right to be wary of how new owners can reshape a platform's politics; look no further than what Elon Musk did to Twitter after his takeover. But so far, at least, liberals' worst fears about TikTok's sale have failed to materialize.

Using data from Magnitude Media, I analyzed total views, engagement, and post volume for 194 major accounts that post about U.S. news and politics regularly. The result is a pretty clear illustration that there has been no significant, high-level shift in reach or engagement since the company’s sale was finalized in January. 

Some liberal accounts have seen fewer views since then, while others have grown their reach significantly. Still others have continued par for the course, with their numbers fluctuating based on little more than how often they're posting.

Take liberal news creator Aaron Parnas, one of the biggest political voices on the platform: five months after the sale closed, he racked up more views on his TikTok content in May than in any other month over the past year. The DNC (@thedemocrats), on the other hand, has watched its views drop since January, pulling in around 100 million monthly views in May compared to over 300 million at the start of the year. MS NOW has suffered a similar decline. But then again, liberal commentator David Pakman's views are way up, as are Harry Sisson's.

“[Our] data shows that, in aggregate, TikTok views from left-leaning accounts have been remarkably steady over the last six months,” says Eric Coffin-Gould, Vice President of Analytics at Magnitude Media. “January was the peak for left-leaning engagement on TikTok and across all social media platforms, as the country reacted to ICE's actions in Minnesota. There was a natural decrease after that peak, but nothing out of the ordinary. And total views in the past month have been comparable to views in February and in November-December last year.”

The story is much the same on the Right, where large conservative creators haven't received any real, noticeable boost since January. @TeamTrump, one of the biggest pro-Trump accounts on the platform, is actually pulling in far fewer views and less engagement than it did last summer, dropping to roughly 80 million views in June from over 190 million last August. Meanwhile, Tucker Carlson has significantly ramped up his posting volume and grown his views as a result.

This data generally tracks with earlier research published by a group of academics back in February, who found no "systematic evidence" of major changes to how political content spreads on the platform.

Claims of censorship and shadowbanning from both sides of the political aisle plagued TikTok long before the platform changed ownership. Over the years, I've interviewed numerous creators who insist that abortion-related content, for example, gets censored on the app, only for other creators to tell me soon after that their abortion content outperforms everything else they post. I’ve had the same cycle play out with content about Epstein, Palestine and LGBT issues. The most common explanation (one that has been repeatedly cited by the company itself) is that the platform's automated moderation systems are extremely finicky and sometimes miscategorize posts as rule violations, which is a very different thing from some executive personally ordering that liberal or conservative content be taken down a notch. 

None of this means liberals should let their guard down entirely. The researchers I cited who studied the platform back in February were careful to note that TikTok doesn't give outside researchers the access they'd need to fully audit its recommendation systems, which means small-scale suppression could still slip past analyses like theirs, and mine. And unlike Musk, who tweeted through every chaotic change he made at Twitter, TikTok’s new owners have every incentive to keep any future thumb-on-the-scale moments quiet. For now, though, every measurable indicator says the platform's political and news ecosystem looks about the same as it did before the sale. The creators winning on TikTok in 2026 are still winning the old-fashioned way, by flooding the zone with content, and the ones losing ground have mostly just slowed down posting or hit a ceiling.

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