Turning Point is going all in on this one election

Turning Point USA, the multi-entity political organization founded by the late right-wing provocateur Charlie Kirk, has spent millions of dollars this cycle trying to take out Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in the group’s home state of Arizona. On Facebook and Instagram, the group’s various nonprofit and political arms have combined to become the state’s largest political advertiser of the past 90 days, accounting for more than a quarter of all in-state political ad spending on those platforms. On Google and YouTube, they’ve spent less in raw dollars but still account for nearly half of all conservative ad spending in Arizona.

It’s a big, strategic bet for an organization still working out who it is without Kirk, and one that could end in a humiliating loss next week.

Most of that money has gone toward boosting Rep. Andy Biggs, the far-right congressman challenging Hobbs this fall. At the beginning of the cycle, she looked like an easy target for Republicans, given that many operatives in both parties viewed her as a weak candidate in 2022, when she squeaked past Kari Lake by less than a point. But Hobbs has consistently led in polling (albeit much of it low-quality) over the past few months, buoyed in no small part by Republicans’ decision to nominate Biggs, whose hard-right record has given her campaign plenty to work with.

Online, Turning Point’s advertising looks like a full-court press. The group has spent heavily on Spanish-language persuasion ads on Facebook and Instagram geared toward young Latino men, as well as blanketing YouTube with more traditional attack ads against Hobbs.

Turning Point’s investment in the Arizona governor’s race extends well beyond digital, too. According to the Arizona Capitol Times, the group has spent more than $18 million over the past two months on ads attacking Hobbs or boosting Biggs, a topline figure that includes the digital spend along with direct mail, radio, and television buys.

To put that number in perspective, I previously calculated that Turning Point USA brought in roughly $100 million in 2024. Even if the group has raised anything close to that for the midterm cycle, pouring $18 million or more into a single state would still eat up a significant portion of its entire budget.

That’s a lot to wager on a race the group may well lose. Last December, POLITICO reported that Turning Point “wants to become Arizona’s political kingmaker,” but by July, Republican operatives in the state were already chafing at its heavy-handed meddling in down-ballot primaries. If a Blue Wave truly arrives in Arizona next week and Biggs goes down, the donors who just bankrolled this bet will have every reason to ask what, exactly, Turning Point’s strategic direction looks like in a post-Kirk world.

Here’s another somewhat obscure data point that could be pointing to a blue wave next week: Fox News’ ratings are down sharply compared to this point in previous election cycles, according to an analysis of Nielsen ratings data published by The Hollywood Reporter.