Could Democrats actually lose New Jersey next month?

In Washington, what began as a whispered conversation starter in coffee shops and Zoom calls this summer has grown into a very public panic: Could Democrats actually lose the New Jersey governor’s race next month?

Along with Virginia, New Jersey hosts one of two marquee statewide elections to watch this fall—one of the biggest tests of Democratic messaging in the second Trump era. Back in June, Garden State Democrats chose moderate Rep. Mikie Sherrill to be their nominee, who won just 34% of the vote in a crowded primary. Sherrill now faces Trump-backed Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the general election one month from today.

Many political observers expect the Democrat to ride a wave of anti-Trump energy straight into the Blue-ish state’s governor’s mansion, buoyed by a lower-turnout, off-year electorate. But New Jersey’s rightward shift, coupled with Sherrill’s sometimes underwhelming campaign and a stronger-than-expected challenge from Ciattarelli, is creating a perfect storm of panic for some Democrats.

"So much for the Dem resistance if we are struggling to even win a N.J. governorship while Trump has taken a wrecking ball to the government and Constitution," one Democratic strategist told Axios last week. 

Since her primary win, Sherrill has leaned on safe, poll‑tested messaging centered on her military career, affordability, and stopping Trump‑fueled chaos. Having won competitive races before, her campaign appears designed to avoid controversy and glide to victory with a coalition of educated moderates and a base that “votes Blue no matter who,” a contrast with Democrats elsewhere pitching big progressive policy fights to expand the electorate.

Ciattarelli, meanwhile, has hammered Sherrill as wealthy and out of touch, an attack meant to narrow her advantage among certain subsets of the electorate. Sherrill became easy fodder for these attacks back in May, when she seemingly struggled to answer a basic question about her personal wealth. 

Online, Ciattarelli has amassed a social media following just as large as Sherrill's across platforms, and his campaign has outspent hers on digital advertising. Polling still shows Sherrill ahead, though the race has tightened as expected; the latest Decision Desk HQ average has her up roughly five points. 

Still, I’m assuming the race is the Democrat’s to lose. Mediocre candidates win elections all the time, and external factors like the economy and national political environment can push them over the top. That said, if Sherrill can’t energize her base or counter Ciattarelli’s momentum, a shock loss would set off an enormous amount of handwringing for the party and cast fresh doubts on how well Democrats are harnessing the anti-Trump resistance. 

Here’s more reading on the New Jersey gubernatorial election:

Yesterday, Donald Trump posted on his TikTok account for the first time since last year, in a direct-to-camera video telling the platform’s users, “I saved TikTok, so you owe me big.” Watch the video below:

If you follow the world of professional basketball, you’re probably already aware of the scandal rocking the Los Angeles Clippers involving star forward Kawhi Leonard. The team is under formal NBA investigation for allegedly trying to circumvent the league’s salary cap by funneling money to Leonard through one of its major sponsors, a sustainability-focused fintech company called Aspiration. The NBA sets strict limits on player salaries, and according to journalist and podcaster Pablo Torre, Aspiration signed a major deal to pay Leonard millions to do little, if any, actual work. 

Adding to the intrigue, Clippers owner Steve Ballmer was a major investor in Aspiration, which declared bankruptcy earlier this year, and its co-founder was charged by the Department of Justice with defrauding investors. The whole thing is blowing up in the world of sports media right now, for at least the appearance of very shady activity happening. I should note that Ballmer has claimed that he himself was “defrauded” by Aspiration, and the Clippers and former Aspiration leadership all deny any wrongdoing.

Here’s where it starts to get political: Steve Ballmer is a major Democratic donor, and the CEO who signed off on the controversial Kawhi Leonard deal—against the advice of other executives—was a man named Andrei Cherny. Cherny is a longtime Democratic operative who has held several major roles within the party apparatus. He has served as chair of the Arizona Democratic Party, drafted the national Democratic Party’s platform for the 2000 DNC convention, and founded the liberal policy magazine Democracy: A Journal of Ideas. Last year, he ran for Congress in Arizona’s first Congressional District, narrowly losing in the Democratic primary. 

If you’re wondering where I’m going with this and why its worth mentioning, it’s because in July, Cherny was featured in a glossy New York Times profile for launching “Project 2029,” a political initiative assembling what he calls “the Avengers of public policy” to counter the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025. Cherny’s new political effort includes top Democratic names as advisors like former Biden aides Neera Tanden and Jake Sullivan, and he is presumably reaching out to influential liberal donors for funding—many of whom may be unaware of the massive scandal currently shaking the basketball world.

As Democrats search for a way out of the political wilderness, they’ll need credible leaders, fresh ideas, and new organizations capable of charting a path forward. Whether someone like Cherny is the right person to lead one of those efforts is a question Democratic donors will have to answer.