The half-baked plot to arrest Barack Obama

As Donald Trump enters another week of dealing with questions around his administration’s handling of the Epstein files, conservative media outlets, Trump administration officials, and major right-wing personalities have attempted to shift focus by talking about another president: Barack Obama. 

Over the past two weeks, right-wing online media and political figures have launched a frenetic campaign pushing conspiracy theories that accuse former President Barack Obama of “treason” and corruption. It all began when President Trump and his allies revived a long-standing narrative that Obama and his senior officials deliberately manufactured the U.S. intelligence community’s 2016 assessment on Russian interference, all in an attempt to undermine Trump’s legitimacy. On July 18th, the Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, publicly released purportedly “declassified” documents that, she claimed, show a “treasonous conspiracy” in the waning days of Obama’s presidency. Last Wednesday, she continued to fan the flames with more content accusing Obama from her official government X account. 

“This is the single most important moment of transparency in U.S. government history,” right-wing YouTuber Benny Johnson posted on Facebook in response to Gabbard’s bizarre releases.

Other right-wing commentators and online pundits quickly seized on Gabbard’s claims, flooding timelines and hashtags with calls for criminal charges and even incarceration of the former president.

“The Democrats are using Epstein to distract from Obama,” radio host Mark Levin posted on X. “I’m hearing that we can’t put Obama in handcuffs because that might cause civil unrest,” far-right activist Dinesh D’Souza posted. 

It’s not just the random internet crazies who have tried to manufacture and run with this strategy. Last week, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt went all in on the conspiracy theory too, saying “Barack Obama went to great and nefarious lengths to try to thwart the will of the people and sabotage his successor – President Trump. It's one of the greatest political scandals in American history.” The Obama-Treason story also led FOX News in primetime last week, and had been prominently featured on other conservative TV channels like Newsmax and OANN. And of course, on Sunday, the President of the United States himself shared a meme featuring Trump, Vance, and Barack Obama poorly photoshopped into an image of OJ Simpson’s iconic white Ford Bronco police chase. 

While this massive, coordinated right-wing pivot made a major, temporary splash, data shows it seems to have thus far been short-lived, and has even generated a bit of backlash from some Trump allies. 

According to data from the Center for American Progress, over the past two weeks, 300 top right-wing accounts have generated approximately 4,000 posts across social media platforms mentioning “Obama,” which have received 360 million views and 26 million likes, comments, or shares. While those posts peaked last Wednesday, they have since declined significantly. Similarly, Google Trends data shows that while search traffic for Barack Obama spiked last week, it has also declined to pre-hype levels. 

It’s not the first time these distraction strategies have been deployed by MAGA world. Similar tactics have always been used throughout Trump’s political rise - pivoting public discussion from damaging topics by amplifying wild stories or evidence-free allegations against Democratic enemies. That pattern now repeats, but the fact that this distract-from-Epstein strategy was so obvious and half-baked many longtime MAGA-world allies haven’t bought it. 

According to Media Matters which has been closely tracking right-wing media’s response to the Epstein scandal, major conservative YouTubers Brett Cooper and Patrick Bet David both cast doubt on the Trump administration’s Obama-Russia pivot, wondering if it was just “a distraction from Epstein.” Even a Daily Wire host stated clearly on his show, “There's no question that Tulsi Gabbard has brought on this Obama scandal to appease the Trump base and hope that they stop paying attention to Epstein.” And perhaps popular manosphere podcaster Andrew Schulz summarized it best: “the second [Trump] started talking about Obama, I was like, ‘Oh, he's guilty.’”

New polling underscores Democrats’ headwinds

Despite widespread anti-Trump and Musk resistance efforts across the country this spring, and significant criticism of Trump’s administration for its handling of the Epstein files, the Democratic Party’s favorability remains at historic lows.

According to a new Wall Street Journal poll, 63 percent of registered voters now view Democrats unfavorably - the party’s worst showing since the Journal began tracking the number in 1990. 

Only 33% of respondents rated the party favorably, and just 8% said they hold a “very favorable” view. 

For all the focus on President Trump’s own sagging approval amid his trade war chaos and the recent Epstein Files drama, Democrats are still getting outflanked by Republicans on almost every major issue. Voters give the GOP a 17-point advantage on immigration (despite “Alligator Alcatraz” and the unjust deportations), a 10-point edge on inflation (despite stubbornly high prices and a chaotic trade war), and a solid lead on foreign policy (despite daily images of starvation from Gaza and worsening conflicts abroad), according to the Wall Street Journal. 

That survey aligns with another poll taken by CNN several weeks ago, again showing Democrats’ lowest favorability ratings in recorded history. CNN found that 28% of Americans held a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, while 54% held an unfavorable opinion. 

A bunch of leading Democratic strategists I’ve spoken with this spring have shrugged off how bad things are by reminiscing about past cycles when Democrats seemed down and out, recalling 2005, 2010, and 2017 as low-water marks that the party eventually rebounded from. 

But this time around, it's hard to see things how things change for Democrats without something big emerging - a bold platform, a big personality, an unprecedented leadership switch. Anyway, maybe posting all these weightlifting videos will help?

There have been so many takes on this poll this week, so here’s more reading on this, including some different perspectives with varying levels of optimism and pessimism for Democrats:

• Why Is Democratic Favorability at a 35-Year Low? (The Liberal Patriot)

• The Democratic Party’s plummeting ratings aren’t all they seem (The Intersection)

• The Democratic image is underwater — but they're not losing (Strength in Numbers)

• Why Democrats are suddenly confident about 2026 (AXIOS) 

Follow-up: What’s boosting Benny Johnson?

Last week, I wrote about how right-wing YouTuber Benny Johnson far outpaced every other political YouTube channel in subscriber growth last quarter—adding over 2.2 million new subscribers in just three months. I asked you all for your theories about what might be behind that suspicious surge, since Johnson didn’t actually get significantly more views than other top creators.

Since so many of you are actual YouTube experts, you actually came through! The Bulwark’s Tim Miller and Sarah Longwell weighed in on their podcast, as did viral progressive YouTuber Jesse Dollemore (see above), who called Johnson’s growth “fishy.” Another major progressive YouTuber, David Pakman, offered his own plausible theories—suggesting the spike could be thanks to some kind of paid acquisition campaign, whether by Johnson himself or someone else. You can read Pakman’s full analysis here.

More things you should read:

• Tired of getting endless political fundraising text messages from campaigns you didn’t sign up for? Good news: Apple’s new spam filters in iOS 26, slated to roll out in September, will deliver text messages from unknown senders into a separate inbox. The NRSC, Republicans’ Senate campaign arm, is furious about the potential inability to spam voters, calling Apple’s change “voter disenfranchisement,” lol. 

• Progressive research and advocacy hub Media Matters is on the ropes, as it remains the center of right-wing attacks. On Friday, the New York Times published an in-depth look at the organization’s existential troubles, caused by Elon Musk-driven lawsuits and weaponization of the federal government by the Trump administration. For two decades, the David Brock-founded group has published critical research that has uncovered corruption and tracked extremism online and off. 

• Adam Bonica argues that Democrats’ constant spam text messaging tactics are hurting the party. “Healthy political parties treat supporters as partners in a shared project. They explain goals clearly, provide honest updates, and make their case for support without manufacturing crises or offering phantom matches. They build trust through transparency, not manipulation.”

• The Wall Street Journal profiled Tim Pool, a major right-wing YouTuber who runs a mini-media empire out of a studio near Martinsburg, West Virginia, and whose shows “veer into the conspiratorial.” Pool was included on my recently published list of the fastest-growing political YouTubers in Q2. 

• All year long, I’ve heard about how Cory Booker has been tutoring his fellow Senate Democrats on how to use social media, with a mixed track record of success. Burgess Everett at Semafor recently wrote an interesting piece about how Booker “convinced his party to get extremely online.” Regardless of whatever cringe content Senate Democrats are putting out on social media, it can’t be as bad as whatever this is from Republican Sen. Joni Ernst. 

• Independent journalist Judd Legum offers a good illustration of the perils of modern media companies claiming to place themselves on a high horse when it comes to political neutrality. While many new political media outlets are comfortable with their journalists transparently sharing their perspectives, Axios has claimed that it sticks to objective facts and far away from any opinion content. As sensational headlines and snarky ledes define the newsletter industry, Legum expertly calls out the company for a few recent instances where they’ve shown a pro-MAGA lean. 

• Last week, Facebook and Instagram's parent company, Meta, announced that it would ban all political and social issue advertising in the European Union. The change has been billed as a response to EU regulations that require major new transparency requirements. Google already made a similar move to ban political ads in Europe last fall.

• Not afraid to play devil’s advocate, Nate Silver is asking: Is Epstein the new Russiagate?

One last thing: Major midterm moves

The 2026 midterm election cycle is well underway, with a slate of major campaign announcements happening this week: 

• Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA) is challenging Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia, in what will no doubt be one of Democrats’ toughest Senate races next year. Collins joins what will likely become a crowded field of Republicans vying to take on Ossoff. 

• Meanwhile, across the state line in North Carolina, Former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) is running for an open U.S. Senate seat. A top recruit for Democrats, he gave his first interview to progressive YouTuber Brian Tyler Cohen. RNC Chair Michael Whatley will run on the Republican side and has Trump’s support. 

• In South Carolina, there’s a bit of intra-MAGA drama, as Paul Dans, the architect of Project 2025, is launching a primary challenge to Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham.

• And way across the country in the Silver State, Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford, seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party, is challenging Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo. 

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